1Q, 2022 Commentary: A Nickel for Your Thoughts

Summary

• For the second time in two years, the global economy was thrust into a crisis, first from a
  pandemic and then from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Commodity prices rose substantially as already-strained supply chains were further
  disrupted and the world tried to realign itself to friendly exporters.
• Even though the Russian ruble initially collapsed, it has since rebounded to pre-invasion
  levels, which could lengthen the crisis and necessitate harsher and more protracted
  financial sanctions.
• The combination of much higher commodity prices and rising bond yields has increased
  tail risks and will make it challenging for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy
  without causing an economic slowdown.

Read and download the commentary here.