April 2025 Commentary: Wait and See

Summary

• Despite notable intramonth swings in both directions, U.S. large-cap stocks ended April down 0.7% while U.S. small-cap stocks declined by 2.3%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds gained 0.4%.
• Investor sentiment weakened. Nearly half of Bank of America survey respondents now expect a recession this year, and bearish sentiment in the AAII survey stayed above 50%for a record-breaking 10 straight weeks.
• Despite weakening consumer sentiment, spending held up—likely due to consumers front
  -loading purchases ahead of anticipated tariff-driven price hikes, highlighting the gap between soft and hard data.
• Earnings call transcripts indicate that many companies and their customers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach to tariffs, delaying further investment and business decisions until trade policy becomes clearer.

Read and download the commentary here.