October 2025 Commentary: Trick or Treat

Summary

• U.S. large-cap stocks gained 2.3% in October while small-cap stocks rose 1.8%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds increased by 0.6%.
• Third-quarter earnings have been broadly positive. Eighty-three percent of companies beat expectations, and overall quarterly earnings growth forecasts rose to 11%. The technology sector remains a key driver.
• Despite the dearth of official government economic data during the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, but tempered expectations for a December cut.
• Artificial intelligence remains a dominant market theme, and there is a reasonable debate over whether current enthusiasm reflects a trick-or-treat, an AI bubble or a sustained transformational growth opportunity.

Read and download the commentary here.