U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, gained 2.2% in July while small-cap stocks rose 1.7%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds declined by 0.3%.
The Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady led to two dissents—the most since1993.
Mega-cap tech stocks drove S&P 500 earnings growth expectations higher. Artificial intelligence continues to fuel record-high tech company capital expenditures while contributing to increased job cuts in the sector.
A global minimum 10% tariff has been introduced by the U.S., and some countries will experience higher rates. With little retaliation, the effective U.S. tariff rate has risen to 8.85%, boosting tariff revenues and creating uncertainty around future inflation.
July brought a summer breeze of calm to markets, but policy shifts, AI disruption, and changing consumer behavior signal a more complex rest of the year.
July 2025 Commentary: Summer Breeze
Summary
Read and download the commentary here.
Share This Post
Have any questions? Get in touch today.