May 2022 Commentary: Goldilocks and the Two Bearish Scenarios

Summary

• Equity markets remained volatile in May as a late-month rally erased losses, pushing most
  indexes to slight gains for the month.
• Energy prices continued to increase as supply constraints sent gasoline prices to new
  highs for the year.
• The path for markets and the broader economy will largely depend on the Fed’s success
  in using tightened monetary policy to slow inflation.
• The three most likely economic scenarios for the coming year can be summarized as (1)
  a soft landing (Goldilocks), (2) a recession brought on by policy tightening, or (3)
  stagflation.

Read and download the commentary here.